Thought leadership article
What are the key economic trends insurers should be aware of? This article provides an overview of the global economic outlook for 2026, examining global GDP growth, trade fragmentation, industrial policy, and the rise of the “new economy” in Asia.
Global Economic Outlook 2026: New engines of growth in a fragmenting world
Global GDP growth is expected to remain resilient with the AI investment boom and fiscal spending providing offsets to drags from tariffs and trade wars. Regional growth divergence is widening.
Rising trade fragmentation and industrial policy driven growth, while cushioning near-term growth, may risk increasing capital inefficiency and government debt over time, potentially raising pressure on inflation and long-term interest rates.
Within Emerging Asia, growth drivers vary: China is witnessing strong emergence of “new economy” sectors, India’s consumption-led expansion remains resilient, while ASEAN economies are benefiting, albeit unevenly from technology trade upcycle, trade divergence and supply-chain restructuring.
This article was authored by Kritika Kashyap, Vice President, Economist at Peak Re. To download the full report, Global Economic Outlook 2026: New Engines of Growth in a Fragmenting World, click here. This article is reproduced with the kind permission of ICMIF Supporting Member Peak Re.
Published January 2026
Overview
Global GDP growth in 2026 is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. While the full impact of the US tariffs imposed in 2025 is expected…
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